Heat from our Sun drives atmospheric temperature changes on Earth, which in turn can affect things like rock properties and underground water movement, according to new research by scientists from the University of Tsukuba and Japan’s National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology.
The Sun as seen by Solar Orbiter in extreme ultraviolet light from a distance of roughly 75 million km. The image is a mosaic of 25 individual images taken on March 7, 2022 by the high resolution telescope of the Extreme Ultraviolet Imager (EUI) instrument. Taken at a wavelength of 17 nanometers, in the extreme ultraviolet region of the electromagnetic spectrum, this image reveals the Sun’s upper atmosphere, the corona, which has a temperature of around a million degrees Celsius. Image credit: ESA / NASA / Solar Orbiter / EUI Team / E. Kraaikamp, ROB.
Seismology has revealed much of the basics about earthquakes: tectonic plates move, causing strain energy to build up, and that energy eventually releases in the form of an earthquake.
As for forecasting them, however, there’s still much to learn in order to evacuate cities before catastrophes like the 2011 magnitude 9.0 Tōhoku earthquake
In recent years, research has focused on a possible correlation between the Sun or Moon and seismic activity on Earth, with some studies pointing to tidal forces or electromagnetic effects interacting with the planet’s crust, core, and mantle.
In the new study, Matheus Henrique Junqueira Saldanha and his colleagues explored the likelihood that Earth’s climate, as affected by solar heat, plays a role.
“Solar heat drives atmospheric temperature changes, which in turn can affect things like rock properties and underground water movement,” Dr. Junqueira Saldanha said.
“Such fluctuations can make rocks more brittle and prone to fracturing, for example — and changes in rainfall and snowmelt can alter the pressure on tectonic plate boundaries.”
“While these factors may not be the main drivers of earthquakes, they could still be playing a role that can help to predict seismic activity.”
Using mathematical and computational methods, the researchers analyzed earthquake data alongside solar activity records and surface temperatures on Earth.
Among other findings, they observed that when they included Earth surface temperatures into their model, the forecasting became more accurate, especially for shallow earthquakes.
“That makes sense, since heat and water mostly affect the upper layers of the Earth’s crust,” Junqueira Saldanha said.
The findings suggest the transfer of solar heat to the surface of the Earth does affect seismic activity, however minutely, and that incorporating solar activity predictions into detailed Earth temperature models may help issue earthquake forecasts.
“It’s an exciting direction, and we hope our study sheds some light on the bigger picture of what triggers earthquakes,” Dr. Junqueira Saldanha said.
The study appears today in the journal Chaos.
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Matheus Henrique Junqueira Saldanha et al. The role of solar heat in earthquake activity. Chaos 35, 033107; doi: 10.1063/5.0243721
